Friday, 28 August 2015


 Opposition alliance
The Traditional Democratic Alliance (TDA) was formed in June 2015 as a coalition of opposition political parties, civil society organisations and pressure groups in Uganda with the aim of establishing a credible electoral management system. This umbrella body intends to select and nominate joint presidential and parliamentary candidates for the 2016 general elections. The alliance is another desperate move by patriotic Ugandans to rescue their country from the 30 years of bondage under the Museveni military rule. This development comes amidst strong debates on whether or not the opposition should take part in an electoral exercise that is organised by Museveni. Basing on past experience, it is clear that Museveni has always taken advantage of his incumbency but more so the fusing of the state and his regime. He has on several occasions made it very clear that he has the personal control of security forces and the national treasury which he will use to stay in power. He has also stated that he does not see any other Ugandan with a vision to lead the country and that he will never hand over power to leaders of opposition whom he repeatedly describes as 'wolves'. The regime regards political opposition as enemies of the state. It is against this background that some visionary leaders of the opposition are advocating for making sure that the forthcoming elections don't take place unless meaningful electoral reforms are put in place. In particular, Dr. Besigye has unequivocally starred thus: "We shall do everything in our power to stop any election that does not conform to the principle of free and fair elections. Along this line he has a big following from both the elites and and the majority of desperate Ugandans. They plan to mobilize Ugandans for mass action that will reclaim their country.

Citizens compact
The push for electoral reforms has always been there only that its advocates have not come to terms with the obvious fact that military dictators dont suhscribe to democratic reforms. Like any other military dictator, Museveni too thrives on violence, intimidation, political bribery and manipulation. During past sham elections the country has witnessed a number of opposition coalitions but owing to the military regime's use of violence by security forces and voter bribery that even extends to opposition polling agents, Museveni has always found his way out. Even this time round he is busy reactivating his previous arsenals (violence and bribery). However, unlike in the past, this time he is preparing to counter the mass action dubbed peoples' power. Towards the 2011 general elections opposition political parties and civil society activists carried out street protests demanding for the disbandment of Museveni appointed Electoral Commission.They wanted the Chairman to be replaced by someone who would uphold the independence of of the Commission and defend it from influence  and interference from the regime. The protests were quelled by the Police but the regime claimed that it could not work on the proposals since they had been presented barely five months to the elections. After the 2011 sham elections the regime was not bothered by electoral reforms prompting the activists to undertake nationwide consultations to collect proposals on electoral reforms. They came up with proposals in a document which they dubbed Uganda Citizens Compact on Electoral Reforms. In December 2014 the proposals were presented to government through the speaker of parliament. Of course to Museveni those proposals amounted to treason since they strayed into his power base - violence by security forces and patronage. He played a delaying tactic by claiming that cabinet was still discussing the same. In the meantime unsuspecting activists suspended their street protests - a weapon that Museveni fears most. In April 2015 the regime presented to parliament the long awaited Constitutional Amendment Bill that contained six amendments of which only one slightly touched on what had been proposed by the Citizens Compact. In mid August 2015 the regime used its numbers in parliament to pass its proposed cosmetic amendments among them just changing the name of the electoral body from Electoral Commission (EC) to Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).

Since 2008 six donor community members from the European Union have been partnering with both the regime and the opposition parties to promote the culture of dialogue. This is what gave rise to Inter-party Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD) that was composed of the regime's NRM and the opposition parties that are represented in parliament and a secretariat hosted in the Electoral Commission head office. Like the Citizens Compact, IPOD too with the aid of the donor community presented electoral proposals that among others advocated for the restoration of term limits. The recent passing of the cosmetic constitutional amendments ignored all its proposals prompting all the opposition parties to withdraw from IPOD.

Maj. Kakooza Mutale
In the run up to the 2001 general elections, the military regime founded a militia group under Maj. Kakooza Mutable that was dubbed Kalangala Action Plan. With its head office at Sure House along Bombo Road, the group caused mayhem more especially in Kampala City. Its stick and AK 47 wielding militia group terrorised opposition voters. The group was composed of among others rogue military intelligence officers notably a one Sadaam who had earlier been attached to the NRA 1st Division in Lubiri. Since then, whenever there is an election the military regime always reactivates the militia group under Major Kakooza Mutale. In several recent interviews, Maj Mutale has made it clear that his militia group has the task of ensuring that Museveni wins the forthcoming elections. He has vowed to crush the whoever stands in the way for the 'Omulaalo' - a term commonly used in Uganda to refer to nomadic ethnic Hima and their Rwandese Tutsi cousins to which Museveni belongs. It is wrong for Ugandans to tag the group to Maj Mutable because this group is being organised by the army whose Commander In Chief is Museveni. Kakooza Mutale joined Museveni's sectarian guerilla war in 1983 after his group called Vumbula was incorporated into Museveni's NRA. Immediately after the take over of power in 1986 Mutale sep up a camp in a forest around Wakiso to recruit and train NRM cadres. Since he had not properly informed other security players, his camp was mistaken for an enemy and attacked leaving several dead and others injured. Among the victims was a son to Mzee Gureme who was later compensated with the rapid promotion of his other son now Brig Mathew Gureme.  Instead of being reprimanded, Mutale continued to recruit and train party cadres at Namugongo before the school of political indoctrination was relocated to its present home of Kyankwanzi and re-branded the National Leadership Institute. Over the years, Museveni has accorded Maj. Mutale a special status. In September 2009 he was investigated by Gen Ssejusa after the former had arrested, tortured and detained at his KAP head office a one Benjamin Ssembegeya. Maj. Mutale plainly told Gen Ssejusa that he was a Senior Presidential Adviser on Political Affairs and a Director of Special Operations under State House.

Brig. Elly Kayanja
Brig Elly Kayanja who once headed the notorious Operation Wembly that Museveni had sanctioned in order to all those he suspected would join armed rebellion following the 2001 rigged elections has vowed to defy all the army regulations and campaign for Museveni's reelection. His public statement prompted the Army Chief Gen Katumba Wamala to issue a smoke screen warning to all army officers to desist from partisan politics. This warning was targeting those officers who may sympathetic to the opposition. Otherwise, Gen Katumba Wamala who is a mere figure head Army Chief has no control of the political engagements of army officers when such engagements are aligned to the regime.

Brig. Henry Tumukunde
Brig Henry Tumukunde is busy mobilizing militant youth to stifle the already witnessed during the recent daylight raid of presidential aspirant Mbabazi's residence by militant youth donning Museveni T-shirts. The Police simply looked on as it pretended to arrest them yet the country has not been told the identity and motive of those attackers. Earlier on another regime militant youth group dubbed Youth Coalition for NRM Mobilization donning Museveni T-shirts and led by its National Coordinator, a one Justus Tugume and the RDC of Gulu carried out a procession while carrying a coffin in a mock burial of presidential aspirant Mbabazi. In approval, the regime's Police simply provided escort services to procession. Just last week another militant youth group donning Museveni T-shirts demonstrated in Kitgum vowing not to allow presidential aspirant Mbabazi to ever step in their area. Around the same time another pro regime youth group dubbed NRM National Youth High Command led by Ibrahim Ssewanyana was launched in Kampala with the task of campaigning for the reelection of Museveni.

Kiboko Squad
From the 2007 Mabira Forest riots, the 2009 Kayunga riots coupled by the post 2011 elections street protests, the military regime realized that if the masses are well mobilized they can pose a formidable challenge to its hold on power.  Since then it has been building capacity to deal with such an event. Among the other measures has been the chasing of market vendors, bodaboda riders, street hawkers, taxi operators etc from the city center. Such measures also saw the introduction of militant youth group dubbed the Kiboko Squad that was headed by Abdu Kitata and comprised of youths from the public transport sector, market vendors, Bodabodas, etc and those who were opposed to the scheme were harassed from business. They were given police uniforms and some of them were later taken on as Police Constables while others simply deserted with Police property prompting the Police to issue a public warning.

Crime Preventers 
 In the same respect, the concept of Crime Preventers was coined following the gruesome murder of a female student at Makerere University in 2014. The Police Chief mobilized 700 university students for a two weeks military drills in self defence, weapon handling and political indoctrination. The arrangement was expanded to include all institutions of higher learning and the venue of the training shifted to the Police training school in Masindi. The concept of Crime Preventers has been transformed into a National Crime Prevention Forum (NCPF). It was initiated by Gen. Kayihura and inagurated by Museveni during the recently celebrated Police centenary. It is headed by a one Blaise Kamugisha who is the National Director and Slyvia Ampumuza who is the form's Spokesperson. It has its head office in the Wandegeya suburbs of Kampala. Since then the scheme has been extended to all corners of Uganda where almost every week Museveni is seen passing out thousands of militant youths as they don his party T-shirts bearing his portrait. Their training is conducted by the Police and the RDCs. The regime has tirelessly attempted to hoodwink Ugandans that the concept of crime preventers is part of its community policing programme. Community policing in the Uganda Police was started in 1994with a pilot scheme at Katwe Police Station in Kampala. Community Liaison Officers were put in place for all Police Stations. It did not take root because it lacked the political blessing since at the time the regime regarded the Police as being hostile to its political machinations. However, later it was piloted in the posh suburb of Muyenga and it has never gone beyond that. The original concept was abandoned and instead the political policing scheme that prioritizes regime survival. The regime targets to have a minimum  of 30 crime preventers per village throughout the country and so far they boost of having 5,000 already in place. They are not paid any salary since they are loyal regime cadres who are doing voluntary work but of course they survive on extortion and blackmail. They are used by the regime to spy on the Police, the population and are a force ready to counter the anticipated mass uprising. Burundi has Imbonerakure, Kenya had Mungiki, Rwanda had Interahamwe while in Tanzania Police has banned all partisan militant groups i.e CHADEMA's Red Brigade, CCM's Green Guards and CUF's Blue Guards.

The embattled Lord Mayor Eliasi Lukwago and other opposition activists have responded to the regime's preparation of militias by also putting in place a youth group supposedly to counter those of the regime. This has tickled the regime who all along believed that they had the monopoly of organising.

All along Museveni had been buying time and had no intention of putting in place any meaningful electoral reforms simply because those sham elections renew his life presidency scheme. The political oppositions, civil society and Ugandans in general had as usual been duped. Instead, he has been busy putting in place measures to counter the mass agitation for reforms. Therefore, those mushrooming militant youth groups have the blessing of Museveni. In June 2013 during a Hero's Day celebration at Nakaseke he stated thus: "No one can destabilize the country. Besigye tried to disorganise Kampala. the capital city. We teargassed him until he cooled off. He doesnt ned bullets just teargas is enough for him." In May 2015 Museveni wrote a letter to the Joint perations Command Center instructing them to selectively train and arm civilians in markets, universities, Mosques, banks, churches, etc under the cover of fighting terrorism. On 18th July 2015 the Police Chief Gen Kayihura gave an interview where he was asked about his secret meetings with those militant youths at a certain hotel. He clearly stated that those youth groups give him political intelligence on disruption of political order. Indeed according to Museveni, demanding for electoral reforms amounts to disrupting political order.

Museveni fears the 'peoples' power' and he had initially intended to foil Dr. Besigye's aspirations to carry the FDC flag bearer ship but after assessing his mass following and the people's resolve, he has had to reconsider his moves. He is now praying that Dr. Besigye wins both the FDC and the TDA flag bearership thus abandoning the 'No Reforms, No Election' school of thought. In his estimates, he believes that once that objective is achieved then he will have averted the looming 'Tsunami' while at the same time buying time to do the usual stuff come March 2016.
The current black mail by both the Police and the Minister of Information threatening to deal with all militant groups is targeting the newly formed opposition group under the Lord Mayor Eriasi Lukwago. Immediately after the Pope's visit the groups will swing into action and it will be a bloody show down.


Saturday, 8 August 2015


In 1925 the Belgium parliament resolved that Rwanda-Urundi was to be administered as a province of Belgian Congo. Rwanda was governed by a Tutsi monarchy while in Burundi the monarchy was by the Ganwa who were neither Hutu nor Tutsi. Therefore while in Rwanda the monarchy symbolised oppression of Hutu, in Burundi it was a symbol of unity. The Hutu  in Rwanda saw early independence as the only way of freeing themselves from the yoke of the Tutsi monarchy. In 1958 the Tutsi King of Rwanda Mutara Rudahigwa III went to Burundi to receive medical attention but died during the same trip. It is alleged that his Physician administered into him an overdose of Penecilin that killed him immediately. The Beligian colonial administration, the Catholic Bishop and the Hutu in general were the suspects. Because he had no kids he was succeeded by Kigeri IV Ndahindurwa. Around 1958/59 while the Party for the Emancipation of Hutu (PARMEHUTU) was formed for the advancement of Hutu interests, the National Union of Rwandaise (UNAR) was also formed for advancement of Tutsi interests. On the other hand ASSERU was formed to advocate for immediate independence and the retaining of the monarchy. Tension between Hutu and Tutsi had been brewing and only to explode in 1959 when militant Tutsi attempted to kill a prominent Hutu a one Dominic Mbonyimutwa who was the leader of PARMEHUTU. Dominic Mbonyimutwa survived the assassination but new had already spread that he had been killed. Consequently Hutu in the country side went on rampage killing, looting and harassing Tutsi in the countryside. Thousands of Tutsi fled to neighboring countries of Congo, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi.  It took the intervention of Belgian troops from Congo to cool down the situation. The events of 1959 in Rwanda has been recorded in history as the Hutu Revolution and it gave rise to Africa's first legal refugees.

The King of Rwanda Kigeri IV never fled in 1959 however in 1960 while he was on a trip to Congo he was deposed by the Hutu clique. He crossed over to Burundi from where he continued to monitor developments in Rwanda. Dominic Mbonyeumutwa and Gregory Kayibanda declared themselves President and Prime Minister respectively. The Tutsi UNAR petitioned the UN for the return of the King and the former organised a referendum in which majority 80% objected to Kingship. UNAR and the King were not satisfied with the outcome of the referendum and petitioned the UN again. In 1962 the UN passed a resolution No. 1743 instituting a commission to study the question of Rwanda. That commission recommended that Rwanda and Burundi should be separated and each granted independence and indeed both countries became independent on the same date in 1962. Gregory Kayibanda became the first President of independent Republic of Rwanda.

In the meantime the Tutsi now in exile resorted to armed struggle to regain their lost glory. Their political party UNAR external wing established a militant organisation that they called Ingengarugo Yiyemeje Kuba Ingenzi - IN.YE.NZI (who had committed himself to bravery). Ingengarugo had been an army division under King Kigeri Rwabugiri who had ruled Rwanda towards the end of the 19th century. The term Ingengarugo had its origin in the phrase Kugangura Urugo Ri'ibwami (provoking trouble in the king's court). Because of their method of operation i.e attacking at night and disappearing before daylight, the Rwanda government called them INYENZI (cockroaches in English). small bands of Inyenzi would attack from mostly Burundi, Tanzania and Rwanda killing Hutu and sneak back before daybreak. In 1962 the external UNAR under Francois Rukeba set up base in Bujumbura. It further split to give rise to another faction called Armee de Liberation du Rwanda led by Rwangombwa and Mundandi before it left for Congo to join hands with the Laurent Kabila (Snr) led Mulele rebellion. Another faction called Front de Liberation du Rwanda led by Gakwaya mostly composed of students who had studied in Congo and opposed to the return of the monarchy was also born. King Kigeri's faction was based in Darsalaam, Nairobi and Kampala and coordinated by Kayihura (not the current Uganda Police Chief) and Sebyeza. In 1963 Sebyeza relocated to Bujumbura to set up base before relocating to Kampala in 1964. The King Kigeri faction became the Socialist Party because it subscribed to socialist ideology and in 1966 it became the Oganisation for National Reconciliation.

In 1962 the Inyenzi attacked Rwanda in Umutara region before retreating to Tanzania where some of their members like Numa, Nyabujagwe, Mpambara (not the Obote I GSU Chief who recruited Museveni into secret services) and others were arrested and extradited to Rwanda. Others fled to Bujumbura where they enjoyed support from the King of Burundi. At the time Burundi was allied with the communist world and was hosting the government of Congo in Exile that was struggling against Mobutu whereby Che-Guvara was assisting the Kabila (Snr) led rebels. In 1963 a big attack by Inyenzi from Burundi was foiled before another grand attack was launched a few months later in the same year. In the grand attack of 1963, the Inyenzi attacked from Burundi via Bugesers, overran Gako military base, commandeered military vehicles and arms before heading for Nyamata where there was a Tutsi IDP, but were confronted and defeated by government forces at Kanzanze hill near Nyabarongo bridge - 20 km from Kigali. Consequently there was a purge and arrest of UNAR members (both Hutu and Tutsi) inside Rwanda. Consequently, UNAR was banned and marginalisation of Tutsi in almost all social sectors became official. This led to more Tutsi to flee Rwanda and it is believed that Paul Kagame's father Rutagambwa fled in 1961 following such Inyenzi attacks. In 1964 more attacks from Burundi on Bugesera and Bugarama could not bear any impact but another strong attack on Nshiri did have devastating effect. From then on till 1967 smaller attacks and incursions from Burundi did take place.

The 1959-1962 Hutu revolution in Rwanda had made the minority Tutsi in Burundi to carry out preemptive measures against the majority Hutu. The 1963, 65, 68, 69, 72 incidents of ethnic clashes and the general alienation of Hutu had led to thousands of them to flee Burundi to neighboring countries among them Rwanda where their cousins were in power. In 1968 it became official that Hutu were not to get government scholarships to study abroad. The Hutu government in Rwanda had a duty to provide education to Burundi Hutu who could manage to escape from Burundi. After repeated failure by Tutsi in exile to reclaim power in Kigali between 1961 and 1967, they settled down to life in Burundi as their natural heaven. Majority intergrated into society while some got involved into the politics of Burundi. Inyenzi leader Froncois Rukeba was imprisoned in Bujumbura for involvement in a coup attempt against President Mucombero in 1972. A Tutsi refugee working at the USA embassy in Kigali is said to have masterminded the shooting dead of one of Burundi's Hutu Prime Minister. The Tutsi dominated government of Burundi that was faced with the the question of majority Hutu found an ally in the Rwandese Tutsi refugees in Burundi. These Tutsi refugees were accorded preferential treatment from the Hutu nationals. They established themselves in leadership positions, in health, education and business sectors.

Consequently bad blood between Kigali and Bujumbura grew by the year. Their respective national radios were often used in a war of words to attack each other. In May 1973 Burundi refugees attacked northern Burundi from Rwanda through Butare area. The then Rwanda Minister of Defence who was also the Army Chief Juvenal Habyarimana was in the air monitoring how the ground attack was being conducted. In the same year the differences among the Rwandese Hutu based on the regionalism i.e Nduga and Kiga was one of the reasons for the military take over by Juvenal Habyarimana. The Habyarimana administration made Rwanda a one party state under the ruling MNRD party. However, unlike in Burundi, Rwanda made concessions by introducing quota system for Tutsi in the civil service jobs. That is how there came to be ethnic calmness and no mass exodus of Tutsi in Rwanda between early 1960s and 1990 when the Tutsi led RPF invaded.   

Congo's Mobutu also played a big role in calming tensions in that region. He initiated a number of bilateral agreements that were reinforced by a commissions that was called the Communaute Economic des Pays des Grand Lacs (the Great Lakes Economic Community) - CPGL in 1974. The commission was on cultural, social and economic cooperation but security was the outstanding priority. Mobutu was worried of the Marxist oriented rebels operating in the eastern region with bases in Burundi but more so that its minerals in the eastern region would benefit Burundi and Rwanda. The commission was a success story in that it saw joint power production, agricultural research, a regional bank based in Goma, civil aviation, immigration, refugee management, investments etc. A refugee accord emphasized that host countries should not aid dissident activities and that refugee camps should be located 150 km from the national borders. Rwanda maintained that its country was very small thus advocated for refugees to stay where they were. He regarded Rwanda as a Hutu state and Burundi a Tutsi state. Rwanda discouraged Burundi Hutu refugees from returning to Burundi. Rwanda's MNRD rivaled with Burundi's UPRONA such that one time when Burundi's President bagaza was on an official visit to Rwanda his hotel room was decorated with offensive posters. However, each country knew that they harbored each other's dissidents but efforts were always made to contain their activities. That is how the dissident Tutsi failed to get a launching pad to attack and reclaim Rwanda until Museveni afforded them the opportunity. In the same regard, the then Hutu dominated government of Rwanda could not effectively support the oppressed Burundi Hutu to reclaim their share of Burundi. CPGL suffered a setback in 1990 when the RPF invaded Rwanda from Uganda and during the regional summit that was hosted in Bujumbura, Rwanda was not able to ratify the the convention. CPGL finally crumbled in 1993 when even Congo and Burundi couldnt meet their respective financial obligations.

It is the existence of this CPGL's (Rwanda, Burundi and Congo) success story that had prompted Museveni to visit Goma in Congo to meet Mobutu the very day he was sworn in in Kampala on 26 January 1986. Remember he had earlier visited eastern Congo during those early days he was surveying for avenues to launch his presidential road map. Indeed he destroyed CPGL and opened up the way to destruction of the historical alliance that had ensured stability and coexistence of the three countries. When the Tutsi led RPF invaded from Uganda, Rwanda re-organised the Burundi Hutu refugees under PALIPEHUTU militants to its aid. PALIPEHUTU militants fought alongside the Ex FAR in battles against RPF. In 1976 Francois Rukeba and King Kigeri had transformed UNAR into Rwanda Refugee Welfare Foundation that finally transformed into RPF Inkotanyi. Museveni's Minister of Defence and RPF founding Chairman Gen Fred Rwigyema had been visiting Burundi to meet UNAR members followed by subsequent preparatory meetings in Uganda and Nairobi. In 1991 PALIPEHUTU Burundi Hutu militants launched attack into Burundi from Rwanda. Similar attacks continued through 1992 and 1993. In June 1993 a Hutu president Ndadaye who had been educated from Rwanda was elected as the first President of Burundi. Such victory for Hutu in Burundi was a big boost to the Hutu government in Rwanda that was battling the Tutsi led RPF. President Habyarimana was to congratulate President Ndadaye but three months later the later was slaughtered by the Tutsi army officers. That killing sparked off another round of bloody ethnic clashes in Burundi that saw more Hutu flee Burundi to Tanzania,Congo and Rwanda. More Burundi Hutu militant groups were born and obviously registered the support of the Hutu government of Rwanda. The subsequent attacks by Burundi Hutu militants from Rwanda
often resulted into reprisal attacks on Hutu civilians in northern Burundi and the resultant fleeing of Hutu civilians to Rwanda and Congo.

By the time the Hutu president of Rwanda was killed in a plane crash together with his Burundian counterpart Cyprian Ntaryamira, Burundi was calling for foreign military intervention. That is why it has never been clear as to what mission the Burundian President was up to when he met his death.The Tusti led RPF took over government in Rwanda forcing the entire government machinery to flee to eastern Congo together with millions civilians thus forming a government in exile. Tens of thousands of Rwandese Hutu has also fled to Burundi and Tanzania. Also to flee to Congo were the Burundi Hutu refugees and militants who had been residing in Rwanda. In Congo the Burundi Hutu militants joined hands with the defeated Rwanda Ex FAR and militia Interahamwe. By 1996 Burundi Hutu militias under CNDD (the current ruling party in Burundi) would make deep incursions into Burundi from Rwanda. Prominent CNDD top commanders like the recently slain Gen Adolf Nshimirimana had closely worked with Rwanda's Hutu rebels in Congo.

At the instigation of the new Tutsi regime in Rwanda, Rwandese Hutu refugees in Burundi were subjected to gross persecution by the Tutsi regime. They were placed in camps from where many were shot and wounded, killed, detained, movements curtailed etc.Tutsi extremists attacked aid workers who were assisting these refugees accusing them of helping genociderers by stealing relief supplies making delivery difficult. Those atrocities were being committed in a climate of impunity as real power in Burundi lay with the Tutsi military and extremist Tutsi political extremists. They simply wanted the international aid agencies to leave so that the Rwandese Hutu in Burundi could suffer what befell their brothers who fled to eastern Congo. With very few exceptions, majority of the Rwandese Hutu who fled to Burundi were peasants who did not engage in genocide but their presence was simply viewed as an ethnically destablizing element and not necessarily subversive. They had fled to Burundi not because they wanted to be there but because they had no where else to go as there flight had been instigated by fear of attack by the victorious Tutsi RPF. Consequently many fled Burundi for Congo and Tanzania. Tanzania closed its border and in January 1997 the Burundi Tutsi army shot dead 126 Rwandese Hutu refugees who had been expelled from Tanzania as they allegedly tried to escape from a detention center.

Increased armed attacks by CNDD militias from Congo more especially in the northern region coupled by pressure from the RPF government of Rwanda saw the forced repatriation of thousands of Rwandese Hutu refugees back to Burundi. In December 1997 Ugandan merchineries fighting fighting alongside rebels were captured in Chibitok. The former Tutsi President Buyoya returned to power in Burundi in 1996 thus the RPF in Rwanda now found an appropriate ally. It was under Buyoya that the then Burundi Tutsi army entered the Congo war theater alongside the armies of Uganda and Rwanda to help Kabila (Snr) push out Mobutu. This prompted the Burundi's CNDD rebels to relocate to Tanzania. However in 1999 when Kabila (Snr) had fallen out with his backers, the Burundi rebel CNDD was reactivated in eastern Congo and fought on the side of Kabila alongside the Mai Mai, FDRL and the Congo Army against the Kigali backed RCD rebels. Through both armed battles and peace talks, the Burundi Hutu rebels of CNDD-FDD, PALIPEHUTU FNL and others managed to reclaim Burundi and come to power. The Rwandes counterparts are still struggling with reclaiming Rwanda.

From the aforegoing, it can be concluded that the success of the Hutu in Burundi is partly attributed to the contribution of their counterparts in Rwanda. The regional grouping CPGL was a success story in stabilising the three countries and had it not been for Museveni, the Rwandese Tutsi would not have had a launching pad to reclaim Rwanda. The Museveni model of CPGL that was expanded to include countries like Angola, Tanzania, Namibia, Zimbabwe etc has failed to match the original well intention regional block. As the Hutu government in Burundi strengthens its grip on power, it feels morally indebted to respirocate the gesture of goodwill that was accorded to it by their Hutu counterparts when they were in power in Rwanda and as a government in exile in eastern DRC. For Kigali this is unacceptable and everything must be done to deny this avenue.  Most African despots are preoccupied with installing client regimes in neighboring countries.


Monday, 3 August 2015


Last week Uganda's military dictator Museveni picked nomination forms for renewing his 30 years hold on power. He has used all dictatorial means to block whoever intended to contest against him in the party's primaries. He launched the sole candidature scheme in February 2014 and has been promoting it through intimidation, harassment, bribery and blackmail. This followed public outcry over wrongly perceived intention to be succeeded by his son in the so called Muhoozi Project - which actually did not exist but the rumor was generated for diversionary purposes.
Fresh on the long list of victims of his political greed is his long time comrade Amama Mbabazi. Until recently Mbabazi had stood as the only historical member whose association with Museveni was still intact after many others were knocked off at different stages of Museveni's life Presidency. When it was suspected that Mbabazi had intended to seek the highest office in the country, Museveni dropped him from the positions of Prime Minister and party Secretary Generalship.
His efforts to consult with the electorate were frustrated by the regime security machinery who arrested him and continue to harass and arrest his supporters. He has now withdrawn from contesting on the party ticket but insists that he will remain a party member and will contest as an independent candidate.
Unfortunately, Mbabazi who is yet to come to the reality of Museveni's dictatorial tendencies is preoccupied with legalities. By the time he realises that dictators follow no law, he will be politically '6 feet deep'. He knows  more than anybody else how dangerous and ruthless Museveni can be when it comes to retaining his hold on power. Unless Mbabazi stops being shy from the reality of Museveni's dictatorship and resolve to destroy Uganda thus adjust his approach to the ugly situation, he is in for a big surprise of his life.
He will be framed on criminal charges and sent   to jail the same way Dr. Besigye was treated. The current regime false  pretense to tackle corruption is a smoke screen to frame Mbabazi while at the same time hoodwinking Ugandans that Museveni is serious with fighting corruption. With both the regime cadre law enforcement agencies and Judicial officers, Museveni has all that it takes to finish off his political opponents.
The regime is very mindful of the fact that the masses are craving for change for which Dr. Besigye is riding on his popular nationwide mobilization tour and call for change through civil disobedience. Parallel to neutralising Mbabazi, the regime has the uphill task of ensuring that Dr. Besigye does not come up as the main opposition party flag bearer. Once Dr. Besigye is rigged out, he and many of those towing his line of civil disobedience will be arrested and charged with inciting violence/terrorism. Gen Ssejusa who is currently towing the Dr. Besigye school of thought will also be dealt with in the same way.
The regime will undermine the cohesion and strength of the much cherished opposition alliance (TDA) through  fomenting of further division in the traditional political parties (DP and UPC). Museveni has of recent been courting the northern region and its not by coincidence that the architects of the split in DP and UPC are Norbert Mao and Jimmy Akena respectively who hail from northern region. Norbert Mao has in the past been a stumbling block in opposition alliance to Museveni's advantage and is set to do it again. His being very crafty and ambitious coupled by his closeness to the Deputy Speaker of Parliament Jacob Oulanya makes him well placed to be used by Museveni.
Between now and end of November 2015 the regime will focus on the above mentioned behind the curtains political schemes while at the same time building capacity for the security forces and the power of cash as that main weapons for the final March 2016 showdown. The timing is dictated by the impending Papal visit at the end of November 2016 which Museveni intends to exploit to boost his international image. The same period will also witness improved cosmetic security, political freedom and tolerance by the regime. The ongoing security swoops under cover of the Papal visit targeting unemployed urban youth will be intensified in order to deplete urban centers with the youth who may take part in civil disobedience.
Those youth will be subdued through arrests and detentions while others will either flee to rural areas or forced become less active through bribery. The current acts of unexplained killings especially in and around Kampala are designed to provide a justification for a security crack down - the Operation Wembly way. The military training and arming of millions of ruling party youth under cover of Crime Preventers is also in this regard. There is going to be no more killing of Muslim clerics because the objective of getting Jamil Mukulu extradited has been achieved but more so because the Muslims came out strongly and threatened to take on the regime for its systematic persecution of Muslims.
There is a high possibility that after the Pope's visit a stage-managed terror attack will take place in order to win back the attention of the West and more especially President Obama and the USA. It happened in 2010 when the West had put Museveni in the spotlight over his intentions to seek another term and he had been shy to declare his intention.. A twin terror attack in Kampala left over 70 dead and immediately President Obama made a telephone call to Museveni reassuring him of USA's support in fighting terrorists. Indeed in that confusion Museveni simply embarked on campaigns without even declaring that he was to seek another term.
That is why during that attack no foreign national from the Western countries was targeted. Most of the suspects in that attack were reportedly arrested and they easily confessed. However it has taken five years until recently for the suspects who confessed to be tried. The trial coincided with the murder of Muslim clerics and the lead Prosecutor Joan Kagezi. Indeed the on going trial proceedings are revealing a lot of anomalies by the security and law enforcement agencies. Whatever the case, Museveni will have to design a special response to President Obama's recent direct attack on his life presidency scheme.
Once the Papal visit is over and the world has turned its eyes off Uganda, hell will break out. The TDA will have not taken shape and some political parties will have opted out of the electoral process leaving Mao's DP and Akena's UPC in the race. The elections will be conducted in an atmosphere of fear and intimidation.  Gen Aronda the Minister of Internal Affairs will play a pivotal role in the electoral process to ensure Museveni's high score assisted by the Commission's Secretary Sam Rwakoojo.  Moreover, already Gen Aronda has been at the helm of preparing the voters register from the fraudulent National ID project. He will also coordinate the stifling of the media before, during and after the election in conjunction with the Media Center, Uganda Communication Commission (UCC), the Election Security Task Force under Gen Muhoozi's SFG and the regime Police in liaison with the Information Minister Gen Jim Muhoozi.
If Dr. Besigye will have been eliminated from the electoral process, the voter turn out will be very small and Museveni  will be declared the winner. This will be after security forces will have been deployed at every corner of the country unlike in 2001when concentration was in Kampala city. As usual opposition will cry foul backed by the West which will stop at only discrediting the exercise and calling upon the regime to form a government of national unity. Instead Museveni will appoint either DP's Nobert Mao or Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanya as his Vice President.
The Prime Minister will come from the eastern region in the names of Mike Mukula. There will be some slight semblance of protests against the outcome of the elections but will be met with decisive brutality and persecution of opposition supporters more especially those of Mr. Mbabazi. In order to scare off those who may resort to take up arms, a real or stage managed attempt to form a political armed group will made but either way it will be used to further purge political dissenters. Among the army representatives to parliament will be Museveni's son Gen Muhoozi who will have played a major role in identifying and facilitating the youth who will come to parliament on the party ticket. That way many old guards who are now dancing Museveni Pakalast will be surprised if they are undermined not to return to parliament.
As the new government will be settling down and consolidating its victory, the opposition pressure will lose momentum and civil society activities will be highly curtailed thus many will gradually join the oligarchy. Security services will be reorganised and restructured with many old guards either retired or depending on the situation relocated to other sectors. Towards 2021 almost all personnel in the security forces, public service personnel and parliamentarians will be loyal to Gen Muhoozi. Museveni will focus so much on East African Community political integration in the hope that he becomes its first President. That is why currently there is renewed vigor to sensitize Ugandans about the community.
Depending on how best he manages to manipulate the new President of Tanzania who will have been elected in October 2015, he already has the support of Kenya and Rwanda. He will work towards bringing on board South Sudan and Somalia in order to secure a military alliance under the guise of an economic block. The Nkurunziza regime in Burundi is likely to fall in the near future unless Nkurunziza kneels before him and Kagame.
There will be a slight improvement in the health sector in terms of infrastructure and facilities in order to account for the oil but meaningful health care will be for the oligarchy in expensive private hospitals and abroad. The education sector will be further destroyed in order to breed ignorance which is a breeding ground for autocracy. Emphasis will be on vocational training which would not be a bad idea only that is brought in bad faith. Museveni's worry is that an enlightened and informed society is difficult to manipulate. That is why he is decampaigning the teaching of arts subjects and the English language while promoting the teaching of Kiswahili and Chinese languages.
He does not want majority Ugandans to understand the dynamics of political and economic trends so that they don't make a comparison and criticism of his policies. To achieve this he is already tampering with the education curriculum to suit his designs while emphasising political indoctrination through patriotism training in schools and among the youth.
Widespread ignorance will breed strong belief in myths about Museveni and reliance on superstition while at the same time driving a desperate and economically deprived  population into unguided religious worshiping. Until recently when the government in Burundi slammed a stop of registering new religious denominations the figure had reached 680 different Christian religious groups in the country. Also, ignorance and hopelessness will breed a lot of attention on art like Music and entertainment just as was the way in Mobutu's Congo and Apartheid South Africa. National performance in sports will fall because of political interference as you saw the National netball team had to don party colors while heading to Australia. Selective quality education will be accorded to members of the oligarchy who can afford expensive schools in the country and abroad while the rest of the population swims in ignorance.
The economy will improve owing to oil flow and loans from China and Russia that will benefit only the oligarchy while poverty levels among Ugandans will worsen. A wealthy population gets quality education which brings about enlightenment thus quality education that arms citizens with knowledge about their rights - this is what Museveni fears. The gap between the poor and the rich will widen further thus the oligarchy will swim in wealth while the ignorant regime cadres will stop at singing praises of Pakalast as the majority of the population will just watch helplessly. With the oil cash there will be increased involvement in the internal affairs of neighboring countries who don’t pay allegiance to Museveni and funding of fighting groups from the region. That way Uganda will find a lot of pride in hosting millions of refugees as is already the case now where is hosting  about 600,000 refugees.
Every aspect of public life will be militarised and members of the security forces will be sworn regime cadres who will be required to swear allegiance to the party and the founding Chairman (Museveni)'s ideology. In order to reinforce political indoctrination under the cover of promoting patriotism, compulsory national/military service will be promoted. Security services will be the biggest employer and most prestigious employment.
There is going to be created hereditary military families as fathers will be passing on the mantle to their sons and daughters and Museveni has already hinted on this when he ordered that children of army veterans should be afforded special slots in the recruitment into security services. Intelligence services will be restructured and accorded a priority as couples will spy on each other, students will spy on teachers, security guards will spy on their masters, drivers will spy on their masters, house girl/boys will spy on their masters, while neighbors will spy on each other.
Independent media houses will be history and there will be total control of information flow. Much of the local government and other government offices will be manned by military personnel and any semblance of political dissent will be brutally suffocated in its infancy. Gradually there will be some kind of false peace and stability that will last for decades in the same way it had been the case in Libya before it will explode out in a revolution. That revolution will be led by the grand children of Besigye,  Lukwago, Ssejusa, Mao, etc. or  the great grand children of Amama Mbabazi against Amos Museveni II - the 65 years old who will be the President of Uganda at the time and son of the late former President Gen Muhoozi Keinerugaba of the ruling Father of the Nation Yoweri Kaguta Museveni dynasty.
That will be around 2070 which is over 50 years from now when Museveni's NRM will be dislodged from power. It only then that the dates of Museveni's birth and death will be scrapped from the national holidays list.
There is no doubt Museveni will use the same means he has always used to come out of the forthcoming elections as the winner and will continue to rule Uganda. However, the current opposition leaders have the key to changing the trend of events only if they can switch to realistic approach to the task before them of leading oppressed Ugandans to reclaim their country lest history will judge them harshly.