Uganda's military dictator, Gen. Museveni's hold o presidency is this time around being challenged at his own game. He corruptly removed the constitutional two five years’ presidential term limits in the hope that he would always rig his way after every five years. However, this time around he is facing a big challenge from Ugandans who are craving for change. The opposition message of 'not business as usual' seem to be taking root. Ugandans are already visibly demonstrating that they want a change of leadership. Museveni has come to terms with the fact that his usual tricks like; threats of return to insecurity if not voted back, intimidation, bribery, ballot stuffing, etc. cant work for him this around. The only last card that he is holding on is outright violence by his security apparatus. That way, he will be able to disrupt the entire electoral process so that he is either declared the winner amidst chaos or the entire exercise is nullified. In either scenario, he will achieve his much cherished hobby - holding on the presidency.
The opposition has mobilised Ugandans to keep vigilance during the polls and Museveni has put in place a one million + militia corps under the cover of Crime Preventers to counter the above popular opposition poll vigilance. These militias will supplement the army, police, and the intelligence services in subduing the masses who are craving for change. Museveni had made it clear that he won’t hand over power even if he lost at the polls; the police Chief has promised to issue out guns to these regime militias at the hour of need; the regime party Secretary General has declared that who ever protests Museveni's victory will be shot dead; and the army chief has made it clear that the army will intervene in the electoral process. All those statements are a component of the wider intimidation scheme for Museveni still believes that it can once again work for him.
Another strategy that Museveni intends to use is to hoodwink the opposition by allowing it to win parliamentary and local government seats in some areas. His plan is to allow the opposition a win in most of the urban centers for both the parliamentary seats and local government positions. In his estimates he believes that once such opposition candidates win in such urban centres, their supporters will feel contented thus abandon the push for change of leadership at the top (presidency). Because of the monetary gains associated with a parliamentary seat, there is a high possibility that such victorious candidates will feel contented and where they will have been designated as coordinators of opposition poll vigilantes, they won't push beyond their own victory. This will leave the opposition's massive vigilantes without direction and in disarray. Therefore, the opposition will end up winning about 100 parliamentary seats and a higher number of local government positions mostly from urban centers. He has also swallowed his pride and accepted to win by a smaller margin of less than 60%.
At the end of the day, Museveni will have managed to contain the opposition vigilance for a mass uprising to change the top leadership while hoodwinking Ugandans and the opposition put up a spirited fight against a popular president. At the end of the day, he will retain the presidency and the majority in parliament and it will be business as usual. However, where there is a will there is a way!!
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