UGANDA: Why opposition to Museveni should focus on liberation first

CHANGE OF GUARDS - Some Ugandans seeking to dislodge Museveni from power are stuck and have lost focus.  Consequently they are growing more desperate as exhibited by deliberations during the recently concluded DP reunion meeting.  The call for the DP to unite and form the nucleus around which to build an opposition coalition in the hope of defeating Museveni at elections is the highest form of desperation.  The matter was worsened by the former presidential candidate Dr. Abed Bwanika who, out of desperation, accused the DP and the Baganda ethnic group of supporting non Baganda instead of taking power.  Many Ugandans have come out to wrongly condemn Dr. Bwanika instead of offering him counselling.

Museveni is worse than Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe.  In 1999 the MDC was formed out of civil society groups that were for the majority No vote in the 2000 referendum and it evolved as the strongest opposition party in Zimbabwe.  It derived its strength from the citizens' state of desperation over Mugabe's military dictatorship.  Just a few weeks to Presidential Elections, in January 2002 the then army chief, Gen. Vitalis Zvinavashe warned; 

 "We (Joint Operations Command) wish to make i it clear to all Zimbabwean citizens that the security organisations will only stand in support of those political leaders that will pursue Zimbabwean values, traditions, and beliefs for which thousands lost their lives in pursuit of Zimbabwe's hard won independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests.  To this end, let it be known that the highest office of the land is straitjacket whose occupant is expected to observe the objectives of the liberation struggle. We will therefore not accept, let alone support or salute anyone with a different agenda that threatens the very existence of our sovereignty."

Consequently, Mugabe and his ZANU-PF won the 2002 elections by intimidation.  The regime embarked on weakening the opposition through fomenting of internal divisions.  In 2005 the MDC was infiltrated by the notorious regime secret service and a split between the main group under Morgan Tsvangirai and a smaller splinter under Arthur Mutambara ensued.  In the March 2008 parliamentary elections, MDC won 99 seats, ZANU-PF 97 seats and the Arthur Mutambara faction of MDC won 10 seats. In April the two MDC factions reunited in order to have a clear majority in Parliament.  MDC's Morgan Tsvangrai won the Presidential polls but the monstrous Joint Operations Command (JOC) ordered for the delay in announcing the results.  JOC is comprised of the Army, Police, Prison Services and Intelligence services.  Tsvangirai who had garnered over 50% was instead given 47.9% against Mugabe's 43.3% prompting a rerun. 

Amidst the campaigns for a rerun that had been scheduled for 27th June, the security forces unleashed a campaign of terror against the MDC.  Several of its members were arrested, maimed and others killed.  On 22nd June, Tsvangirai called a press conference at which he announces that MDC was withdrawing from the rerun owing to the violence and that he feared that his supporters would be killed if they voted for him. A SADC brokered power sharing deal saw Mugabe becoming President and Tsvangirai become the Prime Minister while Arthur Mutambara became the Deputy Prime Minister.  The Army was to be under the control of ZANU-PF while the police was to be under the control of MDC. 

The power sharing deal collapsed because of the parallel government and the security services that undermined it.  Since then the army took a central role in the political life of Zimbabwe.  It became a core element in state-party alliance thus constituting a stumbling block against Democratic transition.  In 2011, Gen. Nyikaramba warned the opposition thus; ".........day dreamers who want to reverse the gains of our liberation struggle will continue day dreaming.  They can go to hell...........   President Mugabe will only leave office when he sees fit or he dies.  He sacrifices a lot for this country.........we will die for him to make sure he stays in power.  We are prepared to stand by our Commander-in-Chief." 

Indeed they stood by him and continue to do so.  What many gullible Ugandans regard as the overthrow of Mugabe by the military was not the case.  The security forces simply moved to neutralize the influence of the Generation 40 (G4) led by the First Lady, Grace Mugabe.  That's why the precise non violent change of guards was dubbed " Operation Restore Legacy".  Under Museveni's Uganda, the situation is not very different.  The only major difference between Mugabe and Museveni is that the former never put the security forces in the custody of his children, family and tribesmen. Their major similarity is that they both built their respective security forces into the coercive arm of the ruling party.  Both Uganda and Zimbabwe have no national armies but simply a partisan army whose sole mandate is to keep the regime in power. 

In January 2013 amidst the heated debate by Parliament on the secretive oil exploration deals, Museveni detailed his then Minister of Defence, Kiyonga to issue threats of military take over.  He warned that the army was watching and that there was a possibility "it could reassert itself should the politicians continue not to show seriousness in the way they can solve the country's priblems."  A few days later Museveni re-echoed the same warning at a regime retreat at Kyankwanzi thus;  "........if this confusion in parliament persists, the military would not allow it."   On 23rd January 2013 the then Army Chief, Gen. Aronda convened a press conference at the army headquarters where he made it more clearer thus;  

"..........  the message (from Museveni and Kiyonga) was deliberately sent out.  I can't do more than what they said.  The message was well taken for those who it was intended.  Stand warned.  Stand advised.  Should you not change course, other things may be brought into play."  

The entire country was thrown into panic and the woman M.P for Luwero District, Brenda Nabukenya instituted private criminal proceedings against Gen. Aronda but it was dismissed by court.  Four months later Museveni appointed Gen. Aronda to the strategic Ministry of Internal Affairs.  Again, gullible Ugandans argued that Museveni had sacked Aronda yet he had sent him to expand the privatisation and personalisation of security forces from the army to the police.  Shortly after, Gen. Aronda took charge of preparing the Voters Register for the 2016 general elections. 

A few months to the February 2016 general elections, in September 2015 the then army chief Gen. Katumba Wamala while at St. Lebanon Church Mukono, accused the opposition of inciting violence before warning them thus;  "....the army will deal with them and they will be crushed."   Indeed the army took over following the February 2016 election victory by Dr. Besigye.  During the hot debate by parliament over Museveni's scrapping of the constitutional presidential age limit in September 2017, he sent a junior Minister, Evelyn Anite to warn Ugandans thus;  ".......…..we don't go looking for support. We are the party in government and we have the support of Magye (army)."  Again gullible Ugandans who castigated Hon. Anite were in for a big surprise when shortly after the army invaded the floor of parliament, beat up M.Ps, arrested others and the bill was passed into law where Museveni is now a life President.

Therefore, it is diversionary for some leading opposition groups to bur=ry their heads in the sand and console themselves that if they get united they can defeat Museveni at the polls.  Unless they believe that they can get much stronger than Zimbabwe's MDC when it defeated Mugabe and his ZANU-PF in the 2008 elections.  Liberate the country from the jaws of a military dictatorship first and then you can talk about building strong opposition parties to win elections.  What Ugandans are craving for is not strong political parties to contest in elections but a liberation platform to salvage the country.  No amount of organizational capacity can dislodge MUSEVENISM through the ballot. 

INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM.