"RDF is trained and prepared to fight wars but not to start them with others. But if others make us their problem and chose to start a war with us, that is when we use judgement, determination and try to fight and finish it for them."Rwanda's President, Kagame at a recent public function.
A few days earlier, during the celebration to mark Liberation Day, Rwanda's Ambassador to Uganda publicly asked the Museveni regime to "investigate incidents brought to its (Uganda) attention involving terrorists targeting Rwanda. "
Rwanda which has been and continues to be the center of gravity in both the stability and instability of the Great Lakes Region is under threat of attack by its foreign sponsored armed dissidents. While the 24 years' old Tutsi led RPF regime managed to neutralize the traditional so called Hutu dominated FDRL Genocides through both military force in Congo and a campaign of isolation, the current threat seems to be a force to reckon with. Since the assassination of Col. Patrick Karegyeya, the Tutsi dominated Gen. Kayumba led RNC had kind of slowed down on the military option.
Rwanda's involment in Burundi's bloody protests over Nkurunziza's presidential bid that culminated into the May 2015 foiled coup was for its internal stability. Rwanda feared that its Hutu dominated dissidents could seek the help of the predominantly Hutu led government of Burundi. It wanted to install a friendly government that would not harbour its dissidents. At best, it wanted to reinstate the former Tutsi dominated government in Burundi. Its efforts to reorganize Burundian refugees and dissidents into a formidable force that could destabilize Burundi has not taken root owing to an absence of serious dissent inside Burundi. President Nkurunziza is proving to be in full control.
Instead, Burundi is proving to be moving ahead of Rwanda. There has been incidents of armed incursions into Rwanda by armed dissidents from their hideouts in Burundi. A newly formed armed group, Rwanda Movement for Democratic Change (RMDC) with its armed wing the NLF has emerged and claimed responsibility for the recent incursions. It has gone ahead to disclose its structures and hierarchy with renown Hotel Rwanda Film Star, Paul Rusesabagina as its head. They have gone ahead to release photos of their smartly dressed fighters undergoing military drills in an undisclosed forested environment.
It is not by coincidence that the RMDC/NLF statement has been released by the Museveni regime online mouth piece, Chimpreports. It is not also by coincidence that the NLF is wearing a military uniform that is similar to that of Museveni's UPDF. There is ongoing bad blood between Museveni and Kagame over allegations that the former is harbouring RNC dissidents. Its is further alleged that Rwandese dissident recruits are being sourced, facilitated and transited through Uganda to training bases in Congo. Museveni's close relationship and cooperation with the French army is also another concern for Rwanda.
It is highly likely that Kampala has rebranded the RNC to give birth to RMDC/NLF. Such a move gives the dissident movement a national outlook devoid of ethnic divide. This was the same story during the formation of the RPF in the early 1990s when a Hutu leadership comprised of Alex Kanyarengwe, Faustine Twagiramungu, Pasteur Bizimungu and others were paraded as the top leadership. Once power was captured and consolidated, the above mentioned were humiliatingly kicked out. Museveni had used the same tactic during his Bush War when he strategically placed the Baganda at the top leadership hierarchy of his NRM. Otherwise, if Rusesabagina is the political head of RMCD, then who is the military head of its armed wing, the NLF? Your guess is as good as mine.
On the Uganda front, Rwanda had for long relied on the network headed by the recently sacked and incarcerated Police chief, Gen. kalekyezi. With the dismantling of this Kalekyezi web, Rwanda must be in a total blackout about the activities of its dissidents in Uganda. Through its social media chief propagandist, Sseruga Titus, the RNC has been in a celebratory mood over the sacking of Gen. Kalekyezi. On the Burundi front, the situation seems not to be in RNC's favour. On the Congo front, the only hope is for the new leadership in either Moise Katumbi or Jean Piers Bemba. Rwanda is being careful not to overstretch itself by re-entering Congo to dismantle the dissident training grounds. Doing so would give room for increased incursions from the Burundi side. For now, Museveni can't risk any form of direct incursions by armed dissidents from Uganda but must be in touch with Burundi's Nkurunziza. However, a future direct military confrontation is likely if the two leaders don't resolve their differences. For now what is helping relations from getting worse is the absence of a Rwanda backed Ugandan dissident group.
There is no doubt Rwanda is in a desperate situation. If well coordinated dissident military attacks from Burundi persist, it will have no option but to invade and overthrow the Nkurunziza government. Nkurunziza is very much aware of this but the big question is where does he derive the courage to take the risk of providing bases to Rwanda's dissidents!!! He must have got assurance from some 'big regional power'. On the other hand, Rwanda can't afford to consecutively manage two fronts - Burundi and Uganda. Tanzania is friendly to all the key players - Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Congo. It has strategic economic interests in all these countries. It won't sit back and watch as the region is plunged into another round of chaos. Tanzania will have to take sides since its successful mediation is not likely. It can only take the intervention of a bigger power like the USA to avert the looming regional catastrophe.
In May 1967, Israel was faced with a similar situation when it was simultaneously attacked by Egypt, Jordan and Syria. At by the end of the six days war, Israel came out victorious but Rwanda is not Israel.
Watch the space.
INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM.
change of guards
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