UGANDA: ISO briefs Museveni on FDC parliamentary reshuffles

ISO BRIEFS MUSEVENI ON FDC PARLIAMENTARY RESHUFFLES

WARNING: This is satire.

"CONFIDENTIAL"

FROM: DG/ISO

TO: HEX (State House)

INFO: CDF
IGP
CMI
DG/ESO

DATE: 5/8/2018

SUBJ: IMPACT OF THE FDC
PARLIAMENTARY
RESHUFFLES

Refer to our earlier brief to you over the subject matter, hereto attached for ease of reference (annexture 1).

The FDC has finally effected the reshuffle as per the attached press release (annexture 2).

ANALYSIS
The reshuffle aimed at getting rid of the pro Gen. Muntu moderates and replacing them with a team that will favor Dr. Besigye's extremism and it was long overdue. Immediately after the constitutional Court verdict on Age Limit, the FDC President declared country wide protests thus;

“The Judges’ body language indicated there was an invisible hand or voice in their judgement. If you think it is business as usual, you are wrong. It is business unusual. We are going to mobilise the public for an uprising.”

He is trying to implement his campaign manifesto of 'reclaiming the FDC February 2016 victory". It is in this regard that he is lining up a team of extremists and using the term "Minority Leader in Parliament" as opposed to what is provided for by the law, Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LOP). Both the Constitution and the Administration of Parliament Act provide for the Leader of the opposition and not the so called Minority Leader.

By replacing Kasese's Winnie Kiiza with Gulu's Betty Achan Aol, these extremists are targeting capturing the strategic Acholi subregion. They feel that with the events of November 2016 and the continued detention of the King of Rwenzururu, Kasese is fully in their hands and will never reconcile with NRM.

Public reaction has been minimally mixed but the good news is that a sizeable number of people and more especially the youth, are focusing on Bobi Wine as an alternative to Dr. Besigye for the 2021 general elections.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. The Speaker of Parliament should be urged to vehemently reject the notion of Minority Leader the same way she had done in May 2016. Since the extremist leadership of FDC cannot easily compromise, the move will trigger a stalemate and thus foment internal divisions. Otherwise, failure to challenge it at an early stage has the potential of triggering a legal, administrative and even constitutional stalemate.

2. Some steps must be taken to relax the grip on their Rwenzururu King's detention conditions in order to gain the confidence of Kasese so as to maximumly exploit the sacking of Winnie Kiiza. The DPP could also consider spontenous withdraw of charges from the hundreds who are under detention in connection to the same Nov 2016 events.

3. There is need to identify an influential figure from Acholi sub-region who will counter the intended extension of FDC influence there. Their own Odonga Otto is already doing that and the earlier a systematic approach and facilitation is extended to him, the better. However, since he is jumpy, extra caution needs to be exercised. There is urgent need to rehabilitate Richard Tadwong who would otherwise be in a better position to handle such. If he is irreconcilably disgruntled, then another figure should be identified and brought on board.

4. The DPP should be urged to reactivate the treason charges against Dr. Besigye. That way, he will not only be bogged down but it will serve as a reminder to other extremists about what may befall them.

5. The Bobi Wine euphoria and excitement shouldn't be disrupted because it is eating into the FDC extremism. It is shifting focus from demanding for the so called 2016 election victory to the 2021 general elections. Since we still have a long way to 2021, for now, Bobi Wine should be left to deal a blow on FDC.

6. There is need for the police, Military Police and SFC to conduct self assessment of anti-riot capability in view of recent administrative shakeups that obviously affected command and control (C&C). This can be done by way of re-organising Joint Command and Coordination capabilities and carrying out ground refresher drills for personnel and equipments in readiness for any eventuality. A well designed notice of potential threat of terror attack could as usual help curtail their intended protests.

WAY FORWARD

Our Technical Intelligence (TECINT) team is on the ground trying to assess the level of preparedness in the impending resumption of protests. It is also to establish the link between Dr. Besigye, Patrick Amuriat's team and external links or connections, if any. An accurate assessment of the threat level, will be determined after processing the data collected by the TECINT team. However, if the reshuffle is allowed to take root unchallenged, we may witness a resumption of protests and this time around not from the traditional central and parts of western regions, but from new and more hostile terrains.

MITF (More Information To Follow)

"CONFIDENTIAL"


INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM