UGANDA: Can Gen. Muntu do more than merely appearing on ballot paper?

CAN GEN. MUNTU DO MORE THAN MERELY APPEARING ON THE BALLOT PAPER?

Like most educated young men who joined Museveni's Bush War in the early 1980, Gen. Muntu too had dreams of ever becoming President of Uganda by succeeding Museveni. He like many others, had an honest belief that at one time Museveni would give way to his much younger comrades to take over. The likes of Sam Magara, Sam Katabarwa, Rubereeza, Eriya Kategaya, Mushega, Saleh, Muntu, Serwanga Lwanga, Ssejusa, Biraro, Tumukunde, Amama Mbabazi, Otafiire, Kazoora, Butime, Aronda, Kalekyezi to mention but a few. Gen. Ssejusa put it clearly in an interview with the BBC in June 2013 when asked if he harboured presidential ambitions;
"A Four Star General without ambition is in a wrong place."

Those who were in a hurry to realize their dreams are either dead or have been politically destroyed by Museveni. It's only Besigye, Mbabazi and Biraro who have contested against Museveni for the presidency. Gen. Muntu's presidential ambition has a unique background. A son of a strong UPC founding member, Muntu Oyera took everyone by surprise when he opted to join Museveni's Bush War against the Obote government. Actually, he was initially treated as a spy and placed under surveillance. When he was shot in combat and was sneaked to Kampala for treatment, President Obote came to know about it and sent him a message urging him not to go back to the bush. The resilient Muntu rejoined the Bush War upon recovering from injuries.

Upon taking over power in 1986, Muntu was the Director of Military Intelligence (DMI). His DMI was dominated by Banyarwanda including his deputy Paul Kagame. By the time the Banyarwanda left to invade Rwanda, Muntu was Museveni's Army Chief and remained in that position through the Rwanda war. Paul Kagame, his former Deputy at DMI is now the President of Rwanda. Muntu's tenure as Museveni's Army Commander was the longest (1989 - 1998). Muntu's choice was determined by the need to contain the powerful influence of the predominantly semi illiterate Bush War commanders who were accused of allying with the likes of Gen. Saleh and other ambitious commanders.

The incorruptible, uncompromising, and not power hungry Muntu meriticously served that purpose. He took office at a time when theft, diversion of resources, and a general feeling of entitlement by the Bush War commanders was being set in motion. In his bid to enforce discipline, he rendered many commanders inactive hence the begging of the KATEBE syndrome. However he suffered terrible humiliation from some of those predominantly Bahima junior and senior commanders. He was accused of targeting Bahima commanders. He never saw eye to eye with the likes of Ssejusa, Cheffe Ali, Kazini etc. Museveni did not come to his rescue and by the time he realised that Museveni was simply using him for personal convenience, it was too late.

He opted to leave military service and join active politics in the hope that he would better utilize his potential. As Army Commander, he had come close to the top of the power ladder, the presidency. That's why he turned down Museveni's offer of the position of Minister of Defence. Muntu very well knew that the position of military chief is stronger than that of Minister of Defence. But more so, Museveni had only intended to contain Muntu's political ambitions.

Outside the army Gen. Muntu started his political journey as an M.P for EALA in 2001. It's from here that he linked with the Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (PAFO) - a pressure group comprised of M.Ps from Museveni's NRM who were not satisfied with the trend of events under Museveni. Around the same time, Dr. Besigye had fled to exile after contesting in the 2001 elections and to keep the pressure, Reform Agenda had been formed as a pressure group by members of the Young Parliamentar Association (YPA). With the lifting of the ban on political parties ahead of the 2006 general elections, the need to form a viable political party became more evident.

Reform Agenda, PAFO and Chapa Karuhanga's NDF formed an alliance and commenced talks of a merger. PAFO took bold steps to have Gen. Muntu as the leader of the alliance while Reform Agenda pushed for Dr. Besigye. In this regard, several meetings were held in Zambia and South Africa where Dr. Besigye was exiled. During one of such meetings, Gen. Muntu cautioned Dr. Besigye thus;

"Don't expect to become the anointed leader when you return to Uganda."

In December 2004, the FDC was set in motion and in October 2005 Dr. Besigye returned from exile and was arrested and detained. He was nominated as the FDC flag bearer from detention and in February 2006 he was as expected rigged out in a violent electoral process. Gen. Muntu humbled himself and served under his former surbordinate in the army, Col. Besigye.

In February 2009, Gen. Muntu unsuccessfully attempted to become the FDC President but lost to Dr. Besigye (53 to 656). In January 2010, Dr. Besigye was again nominated as the FDC flag bearer for the February 2011 general elections. After being rigged out again, in 2012 Dr. Besigye cut his term short and Gen. Muntu beat Nandala Mafabi to become the FDC president. At this stage, Gen. Muntu had gotten closer to appearing on the presidential elections ballot paper. His dream was shattered when he again lost to Dr. Besigye in a free and fair internal election for the FDC flag bearer in the February 2016 general elections.

During the campaigns, the two had disagreed on strategy. Dr. Besigyye argued that he would win by defiance thus amass uprising that would guard the vote and even overrun the Museveni regime in the event of rigging. Gen.Muntu had argued that with proper mobilisation and strong structures, the FDC could win the polls. In his acceptance of defeat speech, Gen Muntu warned that without a clear and strong organisational strategy, the so called defiance or mass uprising would be smashed by the regime. But despite the defeat, as the party president, he threw his weight behind Dr. Besigye's campaign efforts. Dr. Besigye was once again rigged out and his efforts to rally the masses were smashed by the regime.

Gen. Muntu's dream of appearing on the ballot paper was further shattered when he lost to Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuriat for the party presidency in November 2017. Gen. Muntu attributed his loss to internal intrigue within the FDC. Consequently he announced his plans to consult widely as to whether he should stay in the party or quit. The eight months of consultation has been concluded and Gen. Muntu is now contemplating quitting the FDC.

Within the Museveni regine circles, Gen. Muntu is regarded as a moderate as opposed to the Dr. Besigye camp which is branded as extremists bent on using violence to gain power. It is for this attribute that some circles within the FDC have branded Gen. Muntu as a Museveni mole. Those who understand Gen. Muntu very well, including Dr. Besigye, have made it clear that he can't be a Museveni mole. However what is clear is that Gen. Muntu's departure will further shake the FDC.

Obviously, Gen. Muntu's focus is going to be on moblising all the opposition forces for the 2021 polls. Gen. Muntu, like very many other Ugandans can defeat Museveni in a free and fair electoral process. The big puzzle remains; WHETHER MUSEVENI CAN ALLOW TO LOSE POWER TO A GEN. MUNTU LED OPPOSITION. Unless a miracle happens, Gen. Muntu's political career may end at being referred to as a FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTANT. Having been Museveni's former army chief, his candidature will make big headlines, more especially in the international press. However, for Ugandans who are well versed with the political terrain, Gen. Muntu's candidature may not attract much enthusiasm.

For the Museveni regime, the new developments help to ease the pressure due to fear of opposition hardliners and so called radicals resorting to mass uprising. For the FDC, let Gen. Muntu leave and try his luck somewhere else. This is the time to prove that you can survive amidst a storm. From day one, you should have known that Gen. Muntu was set to leave and you ought to have put in place contingency plans. Pro-change Ugandans embraced the leadership from former Museveni comrades more especially the retired army officers in the hope that they were better positioned to eat into Museveni's power base, the military. Instead, it looks like the military is the one eating them up.

As a former intelligence chief and later army chief, Gen. Muntu knows very well better than anybody else that Museveni cannot let power go through an election. Therefore, Uganda shouldn't be surprised if Gen. Muntu turns out to be more defiant than the founders of the defiance campaign.

INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM

change of guards