UGANDA: REGIONALISM AND ETHNICITY IN THE JANUARY 2021 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

 NOTE BY EDITOR: This post might have some minor errors (spelling and grammar) and we will correct them after the pandemic. Our proof reader (assistant) quit because we had no more money to pay her. Things are hard financially. However, this post is worth reading for the information it contains. MLN

By CHANGE OF GUARDS

During the struggle for Uganda's independence in the 1950s, political parties were born with religious features. The Democratic Party (DP) and the Uganda Peoples' Congress (UPC) were liked with the Catholic and Anglican churches respectively.

Uganda's independence Prime Ministers, Bendicto Kiwanuka (DP) and Milton Obote (UPC) were linked to Catholic and Anglican Faith respectively. The short-lived Kabaka Yeka (KY) came in as a pressure group advocating for the interests of Buganda monarchists. When the UPC ganged up with KY, it was a colonial British backed manuever for the Anglicans to outsmart the Catholics. When King Edward Mutesa became Uganda's first President, it was in pursuit of attempts to resolve the Buganda question in a wider Uganda. The first post independence government power sharing was on regional basis; Executive Prime Minister (Northern), President (Buganda) and Vice President (Busoga). Following the 1966 Buganda Crisis, Buganda region kind of left the political arena. Kingdoms were abolished, political parties banned and the DP President General incarcerated The ensuing situation under the Obote I government portrayed a concentration of political and military power in the greater northern region.

When Iddi Amin overthrew Obote and his UPC government in 1971, Buganda region jubilated most. He moved quickly to win over Buganda by releasing the incarcerated DP President General, Benedict Kiwanuka and appointing him Chief Justice and returning of the former King for a descent burial. The DP members and the entire Catholic fraternity welcomed the overthrow of the UPC government. Buganda's support for the Iddi Amin government did not go well with with those entities that were making efforts to overthrow the Iddi Amin regime. No wonder, Chief Justice Ben Kiwanuka was abducted by gunmen and his mysterious death has never been resolved. The Baganda in general had no much trouble with the eight years of the Iddi Amin regime. The redistribution of expelled Indians properties to mainly Baganda and West Nile Muslims. The Catholic Church in general had no trouble with the Iddi Amin regime. The exiled UPC that was battling to topple Iddi Amin relied on the Anglican Church establishment. That is how the Anglican Arch-Bishop, Janan Luwum met his brutal murder after he was accused of harbouring firearms from dissident groups. The Acholi and Langi ethnic entities were targeted for persecution because they demonstrated support for their own exiled former President Obote. That is why in 1979, the invading Tanzanian army and their Ugandan exiles treated Buganda as being hostile to them. During the 1972 aborted invasion from Tanzania by Ugandan UPC exiles, the DP dominated people of Masaka had worked closely with the Iddi Amin security forces to defeat the invaders. It was for this reason that during the so-called 1979 Liberation War, the town of Masaka was deliberately bombarded to rubble

After the overthrow of the Iddi Amin regime, in order to win over the Baganda, the so-called liberators and their Tanzanian backers had to swallow the bitter pill by putting in place two figurehead Baganda Presidents, Prof. Lule and Binaisa. In the meantime, the West Nile region was experiencing nasty reprisal attacks for their close links with the deposed Iddi Amin regime In Ankole, the then Minister of Defence, Yoweri Museveni masterminded the massacre of Muslims for allegedly having had close links with the Iddi Amin regime. Museveni created a Bantu army under his FRONASA faction to counter the influence of the Northern Uganda Nilotic dominated UNLF. During the 1980 General Elections, the traditional DP and UPC religious differences were at play. Museveni hypocritically came up with the insignificant UPM as a third force to mitigate the influence of the religious divide. Buganda demonstrated its historical hate for Obote and UPC by overwhelmingly voting for DP. In other parts of the country, the old Catholic and Anglican divide characterised the voting patterns. The UPC and Obote won the polls and Museveni moved very fast to exploit the north-south divide and the Buganda question by launching a sectarian guerrilla war with bases in Buganda.

The defeated former soldiers of the Iddi Amin regime from the West Nile region launched attacks against the UPC II government from their bases in Sudan and Congo. Museveni had intended to create a Bantu army to counter the Nilotic dominated government and security forces. To win over the much needed support of the Baganda, Museveni had duped them by deputising a Muganda leader of NRM, Prof. Lule whom he had overthrown a few months back. However dominated by the Banyankole at top command level, his NRA turned out to be a Baganda Versus Northerners who were dubbed Acholi. The NRA could neither expand it's territory not attract enlistment from other Bantu areas in the western and eastern part of Uganda simply because UPC was historically entrenched. Owing to the DP connection, the leadership of the Catholic in Uganda and in particular Bishop Dunstan Nsubuga supported the NRA. It is this DP/Catholic connection that accounts for the predominantly Catholic Acholi in the UNLA to turn their guns on their Langi counterparts and the eventual overthrow of the UPC and Obote II government in 1985. During the takeover, the soldiers were chanting DP slogans.

Museveni and his NRA viewed the July 1985 coup by the Okellos as a potentially heavy blow to his designs of dislodging the Nilotics from power. The counterinsurgency brute by UPC and it's security machinery was born by the Baganda and DP members in particular. The party had embraced the Okello junta and within the NRA, the predominantly Baganda foot soldiers threatened a revolt on grounds of being used and abused by their Banyankole Commanders. Museveni moved swiftly to contain the situation by duping them with concessions of restoring the monarchy with the then Buganda monarchists. Then Prince Mutebi was smuggled from exile to the NRA liberated zone to reassure the Baganda. He duped the Okellos with the Nairobi Peace Talks while he used the occasion to consolidate his military and diplomatic posture. With Buganda monarchists in the picture, Prof. Lule who had now outlived his usefulness had to die just a few days to take of government by the NRA.

Within the NRA, issues of Bairu/Bahima and Catholic/Anglican took it's toll on the likes of Brig. Tadeo Kanyankole and others.

Upon takeover of government, Museveni moved swiftly to consolidate the support of the Baganda and the DP in particular. The greater North viewed the NRA as a Banyarwanda occupational force and went into armed rebellion. Now, 35 years down the road, the entire country seem to be re-echoeing the same narrative of the Banyarwanda occupation. Museveni suspended political parties but moved to dominate his government with top members of the DP and Baganda is particular. For the next ten years his NRA/M dominated the political space at all levels. When DP's Paul Ssemogerere contested against him for the presidency in 1996, he was falsely accused of plotting to bring back the then exiled former President Obote. When the multiparty political dispensation was reintroduced in 2006, the UPC had almost died but to Museveni's surprise the DP was alive and kicking courtesy of Buganda nationalism and the Catholic faith. However, Museveni had not risked luring back Dr. Obote from exile simply because he knew very well he could not match his political muscle in the country.

Since time in memorial, Museveni's choices of the position of Vice President and Prime Minister have always been driven by religious and Buganda question considerations. All the significant contestants for the presidency had been hailing from the western region. Dr. Besigye, Amama Mbabazi, Prof. Baryanureeba, Gen. Biraro etc. In 1996 an insignificant Nelson Ochegere from Teso contestant for the Presidency as an independent. In 2011 DP's Nobert Mao contested but lost miserably with only 147,917 votes countrywide of which 126,322 had been from his Acholi land whose total registered voters numbered 600.000. Olara Otunu from the same area got similar miserable results. It's not that the Acholi rejected their own but they were in for a more significant choice who could meet their desperate quest for dislodging Museveni from power. To Museveni's delight, the other regions had been fronting insignificant candidates in the form of Betty Kamya (Buganda), Bwanika (Buganda), Mabirizi (Buganda), Maureen Kyalya (Busoga) and a few others. At the commencement of his current term of office, Museveni vowed that by 2021 General Elections, political opposition would be no more.

In surprise turn of events, sham as it is, the 2021 electoral process has presented significant presidential contenders like FDC's Patrick Amuriat, ANT's Gen. Muntu, NUP's Kyagulanyi and the independent Gen. Henry Tumukunde. The development has forced Museveni to look for scapegoats for his failure to fulfill his above 2016 pledge of destroying the opposition by 2021. He is now blaming his party cadres for not doing enough to contain the influence of the opposition. From Western region, he is with Gen. Muntu and Gen. Tumukunde. He knows that Gen. Muntu's message of a clean leadership and peaceful change of government does not resonate well in a highly polarised country with a hopeless populace. However, he knows that he may sway a small number of NRM supporters in the Ankole region more especially those who subscribe to clean leadership. His concern for Gen. Tumukunde is the potential to divide the Hima block vote but more so, infiltration of the strategic Banyankole dominated security machinery. In the greater western region, Museveni is banking on the nationally held view that westerners are in power. He has the block Banyarwanda vote to the extent that even a Munyarwanda like Ambassador Edith Ssempala who had initially associated with Gen. Muntu's ANT later developed cold feet.

From Bunyoro region is Pastor Joseph Kabuleeta whose focus on the oil exploitation in the region has been a matter of concern for Museveni. Among all the contenders, he is having sleepless nights over the candidature of Patrick Amuriat and Robert Kyagulanyi. FDC's Amuriat who hails from Teso region is likely to sweep the eastern region from Busoga to Karamoja. Using the FDC structures, he will also make big incursions into the northern and West Nile regions.

During the launch of his campaigns, he said;

"Just talking about my candidature in relation to Teso is reducing my space because it is also true that the first most serious candidate from the eastern region or even from greater North since Mr. Museveni cane to power is here speaking to you today. So I could easily represent that eastern candidate seeking an eastern vote as well as votes from elsewhere."

Majority of people from the eastern region feel that Patrick Amuriat is their own candidate who if successful may witness the region having it's first President of Uganda.

These sentiments have been expressly articulated by the Bishop of Busoga Diocese, Rt. Rev. Paul Naimahnhye in his Christmas message;

"In the Bible, it was clearly indicated that wise people come from the East; so, let the voters elect wise men from the East as their rulers."

In the same regard, the people of West Nile and the greater North who feel that the presidency of the country ought to shift from the western region to somewhere else will vote Patrick Amuriat. Mao may capture some votes in Acholi but Lango will vote for Amuriat.

The coming NUP's Robert Kyagulanyi was another big blow to Museveni presidential bid in Buganda region and the majority youth voters in the country. While appearing on CBS TV talk show in July, appealed for a block vote from Buganda;

"I want to tell you we (Baganda) are being segregated. That is why I feel bad when I don't get the love that I would be getting here at home.......Those same men tortured us, they squeezed us with pliers and our only case was the shape of our noses; my people you have to wake up. You cannot hate us because the other side they also hate us............the people of Buganda you have been asleep and I Kyagulanyi Sentamu your brother, I am telling you, you have to wake up. When I go to other places they tell me 'Okay we support you but whats up with your own people? Why are they fighting and disparaging you."

The message seem to be taking root in Buganda but the Museveni regime has unsuccessfully attempted portray him as a Buganda candidate. In October, Kyagulanyi made an official visit to the seat of the Buganda Kingdom where he met the Katikiro (Prime Minister) before he pledged to promote the interests of Buganda;

"It's on that note that I come for your blessing and endorsement to take on the leadership. Being from Buganda Kingdom, I pledge that once I get the blessing, I won't let you down but I will make sure that I will front the issues of Buganda."

In response, the Katikiro said that the Kingdom was to support any aspiring candidates who clearly articulates how he is to "deal with Buganda's five inspirational objectives. How do you plan to handle the Buganda question?"

You will note that Kyagulanyi has been very careful not to out rightly commit himself on Buganda's much cherished Federal status simply because he fears being labelled a secessionist. On the other hand, Patrick Amuriat has out rightly promised to grant Buganda a federal status.

The candidature of NUP's Kyagulanyi and FDC's Amuriat leaves Museveni banking on the western region vote simply because some misguided elements feel that power is held by the same region. In Kigezi region, Museveni is relying on the likes of Rugunda and Mateke to influence the Bakiga and Bafumbira voters in favour of Museveni. However, the situation is different in Rukungiri where the Bakiga are commanded by Amama Mbabazi who has not come out to campaign for Museveni. The Dr. Besigye factor and the Gen. Tumukunde candidature will be be at play in the Bahororo strongholds of Rukungiri. In Ankole region, the majority ordinary Bairu (including Bakiga) vote will be shared between FDC, ANT and NUP. The minority Bahima and Banyarwanda block vote will be shared between Museveni and Tumukunde. However, the elite Bairu will vote for Museveni in return for the patronage they have enjoyed. The Bahima/Banyarwanda block vote in Ntungamo will be shared between Museveni, Gen. Muntu, Gen. Tumukunde and a small percentage going to NUP (because of Kyagulanyi's wife who is a born of the area) with the FDC taking a smaller share. In the Bahima stronghold of Kiruhura and Kazo the 'Tuli Mukintu' block vote will be 100% for Museveni because it is a taboo for anyone there to vote for the opposition. Gen. Tumukunde's 20% Bahima vote will be suppressed. In the Greater Bushenyi and Isingiro the voting pattern will follow that of Ankole in general.

In Tooro region, owing to their appeasement nature, the majority Batooro will vote for Museveni with a few voting for Amuriat and other opposition candidates. With the minority migrant community led by Frank Tumwebaze and Peace Mutuzo has assuming the role of king making in the region, Museveni will take the day. In the Rwenzori region, Kasese will vote for Amuriat while Hon. Winnie will influence a few votes for Gen. Muntu. In Bundibugyo the voters will want to disassociate from Kasese by voting Museveni. In Bunyoro, the indigenous Banyoro will vote for their own Joseph Kabuleeta while the migrant Bakiga, Bafumbira and Banyarwanda will vote for Museveni because they assume that he is the guarantor of their settlement in the region. The other commitments from the greater North settled in Bunyoro will vote for Anuriat and Mao.

In the land grabbing prone so-called Cattle Corridor area of Rakai, Sembabule, Gomba, Mubende, Kiboga, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke and Nakasongola the minority Balalo (Bahima and Banyarwanda), Bakiga and will vote for Museveni while the indigenous majority Baganda will vote Kyagulanyi and NUP. In a desperate attempt to win over the Banyarwanda vote in Kiboga and Kyankwanzi, Kyagulanyi had to take his wife there to canvas for votes. The rest of Buganda region will obviously vote for Kyagulanyi. In the greater Kampala area, the eastern and northern Uganda dominated Nakawa Division and Bweyogere will vote for Amuriat. The rest of the area will vote for Kyagulanyi while the rest of the opposition will be disadvantaged by the massive relocation from the city of residents for fear of post election violence. In Greater Masaka and the Islands, majority indigenous Baganda will vote for Kyagulanyi while the minority Banyarwanda and migrant communities will vote for Museveni while a small number of traditionally staunch Catholics will vote for Mao and Amuriat.

The above analysis is based on the presumption that electoral process will be free and fair where no single candidate would get the required 50 + 1 % of the total votes cast hence a rerun. The voting pattern, as analysed, is determined by Museveni's 35 years record that is characterised by military dictatorship, institutionalized corruption, nepotism, gross abuse of human rights, unfair distribution of the national cake, deliberate breakdown of service delivery coupled by impoverishment and economic deprivation, breakdown of law enforcement and general lack security of life and property etc. These are the factors that account for the presidential bid taking a posture of ethnic and regionalism for which Museveni decried recently.

On the contrary, given the prevailing circumstances, Museveni is as usual applying bribery, intimidation, ballot stuffing and outright violence to have his way and he will be declared overall winner.

INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM