AFRICA: The Great Lakes Security and Political turmoil

By MARTHA LEAH NANGALAMA. 27 January 2021

Below is a report I submitted for an Intel Firm in Africa. This report was written by members of my team who know Africa more than I do. This report was paid for in 2017 and I only now recently got permission from the client to share it.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OE99GBSUF0Z_l8xZahm46i4L7aWtNPrr/view?usp=sharing

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Great Lakes of Africa Regional Security – Museveni’s invasion of DRC, EAC

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The countries of East and Central Africa regions gained their independence in the early 1960s at the

height of the Cold War. They became victims of the spread of communism. In Congo, the communist

Patrice Lumumba was assassinated. In Burundi, Prince Rwagasore was also assassinated for the same

reasons. Tanzania's Nyerere tactfully persisted with his African Socialism Agenda. In Uganda when

Obote attempted to introduce Socialism through his Common Mans' Charter he was overthrown. The

revolutionary icon, Che Guevara was facilitated through Tanzania into eastern Congo to train procommunist fighters led by Laurent Kabila (Sr). When they failed to rise a formidable force, Kabila fled to

exile in Tanzania where he spent over two decades.

In Burundi following the events if the 1972 massacre of majority Hutu by minority ruling Tutsi, the later

fled to Tanzania as refugees where they have spent over four decades until they were recently granted

citizenship. In Rwanda, the events of 1959 and the early 1960s saw an influx of Tutsi refugees flock into

neighboring countries of Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Uganda. Throughout the 30 years the exiled

Rwandese Tutsi dissidents were politically active only in Burundi. In Uganda, the Rwandese Tutsi

refugees’ dissident activities were to some extent contained until the advent of Museveni on the

political scene. Tanzania's Nyerere who refused to recognize the Iddi Amin takeover right from the start

eventually succeeded in dislodging him from power in 1979. The Amin overthrow brought Museveni to

the political scene who re-energized the exiled Tutsi struggle against Hutu government in Rwanda.

Burundi's Hutu majority struggling against minority Tutsi rule had so much relied on the majority Hutu

Rwandese in power in Rwanda for refuge and other means of survival. The Rwandese Tutsi refugees

who fled to Burundi were accorded preferential treatment against Burundian Hutu citizens by the

minority Tutsi ruling oligarch. Despite those differences, relations between Burundi and Rwanda had

never soured to the extent of open hostilities. Neither the Banyarwanda Tutsi nor the Burundi Hutu

who had fled their respective countries and settled in eastern Congo had never made attempts to

destabilise Rwanda. This was because of the existence of a Goma based regional political and economic

grouping, CEPJEL, under the wise patronage of Gen. Mobutu Sseseseko. The only time an attempt was

made by the Tutsi refugees under the Inyenzi fighters from Burundi and Uganda to attack Rwanda was

in the early 1960s.

Tanzania informally granted citizenship to tens of thousands of Rwandese Tutsi refugees in the 1980s

who were mainly based in the Kagera region. Its that informal and controversial citizenship that has 

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continued to partly make Kagera region a target of repeated efforts by the government of Tanzania's

operations against illegal immigrants. On the other hand, the Tutsi from both Uganda and Rwanda claim

a right of belonging to Tanzania's Kagera region. Since the days of the early immigration of

Banyarwanda, through the Tutsi refugees’ influx of the 1960s and those of mid 1990s to the present day,

Tanzania has received its fair share of both Tutsi and Hutu Banyarwanda refugees and immigrants and

many have been assimilated. However, owing to its strict policies, these refugees did not turn it into a

base for dissident activities.

It was Museveni's ascendancy to power in 1986 with his Rwandese Tutsi dominated NRA that set fire on

the Great Lakes Region. Top Tutsi commanders from Museveni's NRA led an attack on Rwanda in 1990

under the RPA. The RPA attracted Tutsi recruits, moral and material support from Tutsi in Burundi,

Tanzania and Congo. With Rwanda at war, the Burundi Hutu struggle against the minority Tutsi suffered

a setback. The assassination of the first democratically elected Hutu president of Burundi, Ndadaye in

1993 saw tens of thousands of Burundi Hutu flee to Tanzania, Rwanda and Congo. Tanzania mediated

the Hutu government and Tutsi RPA talks dubbed Arusha Peace Talks aimed at power sharing. The talks

were undermined by the total military defeat of the Hutu and takeover by the Tutsi RPA. The coming of

RPA saw an influx of Rwandese Hutu into Congo and Tanzania.

In Burundi, the 1993 batch of Hutu refugees in Tanzania gave rise to the armed groups like FNL and

CNDD-FDD. The refugee camps acted as rear bases for the training, source of food and treatment of the

sick for the fighters. Through the mediation of Tanzania, the Tutsi dominated government of Burundi

and CNDD-FDD reached a power sharing deal dubbed the Arusha Accord that ended the war. In the

meantime, the advent of the Tutsi RPA in Rwanda has led to the emergence of the Tutsi Banyarwanda of

Congo, the so called Banyamulenge to also rise up in a low intensity conflict against the Kinshansha

establishment. The invasion of Congo by Kagame and Museveni armies in 1996 saw the further

displacement of both Rwandese and Burundian Hutu refugees to Tanzania and other southern African

countries.

The formation of the eastern Congo based Rwandese Hutu FDRL fighting group and overthrow of

Congo's Mobutu saw the escalation of the conflict in the Great Lakes Region. The conflict resolution

mechanism of the 1970s, 80s and early 90s, CEPJEl has collapsed and militia groups and their backers

operated at will. It was until the international community put pressure on both Kagame and Museveni 

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to withdraw their armies from the Congo that the conflict subsided. However, their proxy militias

continued and continue to roam the region to date. The last of such group was the M23 which was

confronted by the UN Intervention Brigade comprised of troops from Tanzania, Malawi and South

Africa.

In Burundi, the political stability brought about by a power sharing deal was viewed by Kagame as a

threat on his designs to keep Hutu out of power. Much as the events of 2015 are widely attributed to

President Nkurunziza's seeking for a third term, the invisible hand of Rwanda was and continues to be

there. It was Tanzania's geopolitical stamina that helped Nkurunziza regain his throne after a coup

attempt. Most recently together with Burundi security agents, it helped capture dissident former army

officers on its territory and returned them to Burundi. Tanzania is acting a God father to Burundi against

Kagame's roving eye and sharp claws.

The deployment of that UN Intervention Brigade against M23 came at a time Tanzania had urged both

Rwanda and Uganda to hold talks with their respective dissident groups. That suggestion put Uganda

and Rwanda on a collision course with Tanzania to the extent of being isolated from the regional

grouping, the EAC. It is most likely that Museveni and Kagame had opted to withdraw their proxy, M23

without a fight in order to avoid a clash with the Tanzanian contingent of the UN force which would

have had severe repercussions for the Great Lakes geopolitics. Now it looks like the two, Kagame and

Museveni are running out of patience and want to resume their armed tournaments in eastern Congo.

Authored by: Martha Leah Nangalama on behalf of an Independent Investigator of African security matters